MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67e123ce9bea18bd3a5e73146a8e191cde96c74c8f1922b04e9ffd906801c182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 2,680$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 45c | 2,500$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 1,152$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 57c | 972.01$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.96 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 869.85$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.01 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 508.79$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 57c | 496$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.29 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 413$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 59c | 408.63$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.54 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 353.36$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.08 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 318.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.78 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 47c | 318.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 43c | 316.27$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 7c | 302.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 53c | 301.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 262.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 54c | 171.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 145$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 18c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 69.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 46c | 42.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.