MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bb18faf03eb617e8da7e10b37a2bf2ef42353e2d8f99481639aac77b922ea68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3625…1187backed New York Yankees | 39c | 25,725$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,725.03 | 379 | 53.6%203 W · 176 L | +18.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 13,393$8,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,131.1 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked New York Yankees | 37c | 13,366$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,366.45 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 6,916$4,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,912.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 29c | 6,296$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,473.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 5,594$3,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.32 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…8688backed New York Yankees | 26c | 4,708$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.92 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 4,500$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,835 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 4,000$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 2,323$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 2,013$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 1,980$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.63 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 1,875$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.43 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 1,700$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 1,359$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 1,100$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 1,100$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 1,045$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed New York Yankees | 38c | 996.98$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.13 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 808.48$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.44 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 544$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.08 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked New York Yankees | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked New York Yankees | 29c | 303$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.46 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 285.52$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.76 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 271.43$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked New York Yankees | 37c | 268$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.84 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 29c | 266$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 265$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 249.97$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked New York Yankees | 77c | 190.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 188.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…2ff1backed New York Yankees | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 124.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 120.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed New York Yankees | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked New York Yankees | 29c | 83.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 38c | 79.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked New York Yankees | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed New York Yankees | 39c | 56.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed New York Yankees | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked New York Yankees | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 40.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 77c | 39.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 34.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Yankees | 32c | 33.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1641…a37fbacked New York Yankees | 38c | 28.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2037…473dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed New York Yankees | 78c | 22.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed New York Yankees | 74c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.