Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Tiafoe vs. Watanuki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ccb345cd9d2f1eef7738aecd67591221415696d1c3d1c0532b93939a5640a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Tiafoe, Watanuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Watanuki | 65c | 9,852$6,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,377.61 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Watanuki | 46c | 8,500$3,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,906.22 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Tiafoe | 49c | 4,697$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,378.65 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Tiafoe | 29c | 2,273$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.18 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Watanuki | 32c | 1,507$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.76 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tiafoe | 63c | 1,210$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5f6cbacked Watanuki | 55c | 1,200$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 44cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Tiafoe | 61c | 1,072$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.59 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Tiafoe | 32c | 903.07$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.35 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Tiafoe | 39c | 700$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Tiafoe | 56c | 699.98$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.99 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tiafoe | 45c | 668.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.57 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Tiafoe | 55c | 650$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Tiafoe | 72c | 648.43$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Tiafoe | 63c | 634.5$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.18 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Watanuki | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…e5f7backed Tiafoe | 41c | 492.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.68 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Watanuki | 28c | 417.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Tiafoe | 34c | 399.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.98 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Watanuki | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Tiafoe | 36c | 299.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.68 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Tiafoe | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Watanuki | 28c | 220.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Tiafoe | 39c | 188.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Watanuki | 54c | 166.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Tiafoe | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Tiafoe | 64c | 140.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Tiafoe | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Watanuki | 66c | 106.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Watanuki | 28c | 99.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Watanuki | 63c | 80.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Watanuki | 67c | 59.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Watanuki | 39c | 51.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…0e28backed Tiafoe | 75c | 47.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…a528backed Tiafoe | 72c | 30.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Tiafoe | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 239 | 69.9%167 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…f88dbacked Tiafoe | 73c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Tiafoe | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.