TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,157 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over22c514.09$113 inLost-$1131,44345.9%662 W · 781 L-22.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…85fbbacked Under78c512.82$400 inWon+$112.822060%12 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Over22c233.5$51 inLost-$51.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under78c233.5$182 inWon+$51.372,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Over6c192.3$12 inLost-$11.542050%10 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd667…e7eebacked Under79c173.28$137 inWon+$36.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc4…4870backed Over21c121.65$26 inLost-$25.552441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under77c94.08$72 inWon+$21.641,66851.7%863 W · 805 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c0…0955backed Under80c37.56$30 inWon+$7.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x935e…9132backed Under78c32.03$25 inWon+$7.031758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under78c19.15$15 inWon+$4.2155946%257 W · 302 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under77c18.41$14 inWon+$4.2378756.4%444 W · 343 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2635…dd2abacked Under80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.