South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa24cdedeb9a31101b5aa7148ce4508b5eac28c5b207aa858916e6cee886d9b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 13c | 3,222$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.54 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 75c | 1,000$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.54 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 25c | 923.2$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.8 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 32c | 718.73$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 56c | 542.11$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.53 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 56c | 450.25$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.11 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 72c | 437.74$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 394.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.79 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 16c | 369.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…bf2ebacked Over | 9c | 363.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Over | 39c | 219.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 213.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 66c | 209.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…be6fbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 42c | 165.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 58c | 157.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 44c | 145.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 57c | 136.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 9c | 122.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 43c | 118.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…db25backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 43c | 110.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 66c | 88.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 75.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Over | 20c | 73.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 27c | 68.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…696cbacked Over | 59c | 68.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 56.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…0665backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…b646backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Under | 69c | 39.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 31c | 36.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 56c | 35.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 59c | 25.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…59b3backed Over | 54c | 19.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 60c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Under | 78c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: Independiente Santa Fe O/U 1.5Over won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: Independiente Santa Fe O/U 2.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Caracas FC (-2.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5)Caracas FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.