South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5231d01ce36f146793dac1f6d4e212a349ca0c924ad5e31f999a80c09772ed62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Independiente Santa Feof Independiente Santa Fe, Caracas FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed Caracas FC | 59c | 10,122$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Independiente Santa Fe | 39c | 2,036$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.56 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Independiente Santa Fe | 42c | 1,324$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.51 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 41c | 1,219$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.21 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Independiente Santa Fe | 41c | 1,214$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.25 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Independiente Santa Fe | 41c | 695.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.63 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…db25backed Independiente Santa Fe | 42c | 628.95$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.82 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 41c | 618.89$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.78 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 42c | 597$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.26 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 40c | 519.79$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.92 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Caracas FC | 56c | 258.78$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Independiente Santa Fe | 48c | 239$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Independiente Santa Fe | 40c | 233.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Independiente Santa Fe | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 40c | 219$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…7f05backed Caracas FC | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Independiente Santa Fe | 41c | 185.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…85fbbacked Caracas FC | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Independiente Santa Fe | 40c | 168$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 42c | 150.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Caracas FC | 58c | 119.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Independiente Santa Fe | 39c | 98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Independiente Santa Fe | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Caracas FC | 59c | 65.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Independiente Santa Fe | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Caracas FC | 58c | 61.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Caracas FC | 60c | 54.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Independiente Santa Fe | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Independiente Santa Fe | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Independiente Santa Fe | 42c | 48.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Caracas FC | 58c | 47.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Caracas FC | 58c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Caracas FC | 62c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked Caracas FC | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 44c | 26.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Caracas FC | 60c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Independiente Santa Fe | 46c | 23.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Caracas FC | 50c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Caracas FC | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1c…9ab9backed Caracas FC | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Caracas FC | 58c | 17.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Caracas FC | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)this page
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: Independiente Santa Fe O/U 1.5Over won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: Independiente Santa Fe O/U 2.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Caracas FC (-2.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5)Caracas FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.