Europa Conference League · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40d6e048838b72e19291e382cc7db8476b491f1c154ce8a298a27b20dc3b3a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 71c | 2,445$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.51 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 27c | 2,305$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.48 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 70c | 1,750$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 34c | 1,419$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.38 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 31c | 1,172$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 30c | 563.29$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 29c | 443.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…8b3abacked Over | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 230.73$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 71c | 119.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…08f1backed Under | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 22c | 76.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 71c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.