Europa Conference League · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a82c784b5f5a0bf871c78e42da991be2d8bd95673152a60b3a807139512bbd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5ab…6ca3backed Over | 50c | 2,540$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,674$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.05 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 53c | 1,597$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.41 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 1,222$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.28 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 49c | 1,028$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.1 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +326.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 952.45$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.62 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…81d2backed Over | 50c | 780$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 50c | 694.38$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.46 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 439.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.34 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Over | 50c | 416.52$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 62c | 196.26$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 62c | 195$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 48c | 169$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 51c | 144.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Under | 37c | 132.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 63c | 129.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 51c | 104.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…1e51backed Under | 51c | 60.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…1015backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…8b3abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.