Asian League · resolved market
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40d733d7cd389f69c37ce61ccfbeb78173c7f77416ddb5eba64b1f2f37f3b086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 73c | 810.41$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.49 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 259.81$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 217.72$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3341…d7e4backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 28c | 105.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 62.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 76c | 61.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 73c | 60.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 40.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 73c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?this page
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.