Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7dc5030912db3de21df4d1aa5ba381ec60f148aa42ba90070dde03edbe8c36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 51c | 16,702$8,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,518.02 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…6428backed Yes | 48c | 12,487$5,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,493.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed No | 52c | 9,615$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…21b9backed Yes | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 51c | 3,529$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 51c | 3,529$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 54c | 3,425$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.5 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 46c | 3,251$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.13 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 52c | 3,172$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.41 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 49c | 2,600$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 49c | 2,040$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.4 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Yes | 49c | 2,036$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.36 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 64c | 1,598$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.28 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,277$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.71 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 49c | 1,075$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 36c | 1,053$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.08 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 49c | 963.71$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.12 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 36c | 750.16$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.15 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed No | 57c | 698$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.69 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 49c | 646.25$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.59 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 618.08$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.01 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 595.54$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.96 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed No | 51c | 586.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed No | 52c | 574.74$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.27 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 49c | 544.21$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.55 | 138 | 49.3%68 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…46cebacked No | 51c | 478.24$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…5c6abacked Yes | 48c | 403.19$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Yes | 52c | 388.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 52c | 334.04$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.7 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 297$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 49c | 291.53$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.68 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 48c | 280$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked No | 36c | 250.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +17.0wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 49c | 245.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0598…3d83backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed No | 45c | 182.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 50c | 175.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Yes | 49c | 173.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 45c | 163.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 52c | 147$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 49c | 123$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 49c | 116.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Yes | 44c | 109.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…41c9backed Yes | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…35c3backed Yes | 49c | 104.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 48c | 96.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…7c28backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed No | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked No | 51c | 85.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked No | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 34c | 79.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…56b1backed No | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 59c | 52.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed No | 41c | 52.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 51c | 51.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 55c | 42.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…3566backed No | 30c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…b3dcbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…c310backed Yes | 49c | 39.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d90…7d46backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes | 49c | 31.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…cf99backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked No | 55c | 26.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 45c | 26.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 50c | 26.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…3a5abacked No | 49c | 24.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Yes | 50c | 23.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 57c | 22.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…5e33backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 67c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?No won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.