Asian League · resolved market
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7d5987bce0619859c4b762f5d2e3cfb4b374a16f4d629c1b00da1d11994e2b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 25c | 12,257$3,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,064.2 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 7,508$5,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 19c | 2,540$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.87 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 75c | 1,888$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.88 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 816.18$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.19 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 719.93$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.76 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 427.78$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.17 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 392.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 26c | 318.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 77c | 300.48$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 25c | 245.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 25c | 225.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 24c | 137.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bc…31fbbacked No | 76c | 132.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 24c | 117.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 76c | 115.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 75c | 113.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 20c | 97.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Yes | 25c | 63.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked No | 76c | 51.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…248abacked No | 76c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked No | 76c | 22.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.