MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40d77adc08c815c35e5492393b9d6820f6d487235951bf8592d82ff40745b8ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 4,328$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.42 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 3,611$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.4 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 524.31$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 52c | 361.11$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.63 | 1,267 | 58.5%741 W · 526 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 52c | 356.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.65 | 533 | 57.6%307 W · 226 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 52c | 182.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 462 | 58%268 W · 194 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 52c | 182.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 608 | 59.2%360 W · 248 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 53c | 148.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 1,049 | 58.4%613 W · 436 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 26c | 108.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 889 | 52.8%469 W · 420 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 73c | 105.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed Under | 52c | 53.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Over | 50c | 41.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.