MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9a1be88261273974c2895ed909c273730d00d083c8e0f8e1ae165a3465870fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 39c | 19,439$7,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,857.76 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 61c | 12,202$7,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,446.35 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 61c | 2,459$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 237 | 57.4%136 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed No | 61c | 837.31$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.76 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 61c | 631.15$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 61c | 564.51$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.35 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 61c | 560$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 298 | 50.7%151 W · 147 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed No | 61c | 402$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.22 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 38c | 275$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 243 | 54.7%133 W · 110 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed No | 61c | 178.77$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed No | 61c | 145$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 38c | 123.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…d938backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 391 | 51.2%200 W · 191 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Bravesthis page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.