MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x586c12976e2245cb911fd041fb0253f27e30427df2243a52633424a9f7885744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fd0…f442backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 6,493$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 3,991$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.01 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 1,195$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.08 | 933 | 53.9%503 W · 430 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 935.2$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.62 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 921$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.93 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 681.71$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.6 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 451.31$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 388.64$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…fcb3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 16c | 286.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 31cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 138.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 312 | 47.8%149 W · 163 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 123$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 15c | 78.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 74.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 315 | 54%170 W · 145 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 71.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 39.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 33.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…6d36backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 22.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 439 | 51.5%226 W · 213 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 357 | 48.5%173 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…8e6bbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.