Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 161.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ef96829d9c4a8fd530452c211d35c86bac5f6a0073099e2380aeffe2df53a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 53c | 222$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 53c | 127$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under | 53c | 88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Over | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 55c | 43.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Over | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 161.5this page
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-10.5)Western Michigan Broncos won
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-11.5)Western Michigan Broncos won
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-9.5)Western Michigan Broncos won
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo RocketsToledo Rockets won
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 162.5Over won
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 163.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.