TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Toledo Rockets (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Western Michigan Broncosof Toledo Rockets, Western Michigan Broncos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,493 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c9b…a556backed Toledo Rockets51c245.1$125 inLost-$12516248.1%78 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Western Michigan Broncos52c219.23$114 inWon+$105.2310757.9%62 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Western Michigan Broncos49c185.87$91 inWon+$94.7812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Western Michigan Broncos50c144$72 inWon+$726253.2%33 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Western Michigan Broncos50c107$54 inWon+$53.56347.6%30 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Toledo Rockets51c100$51 inLost-$5113350.4%67 W · 66 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Western Michigan Broncos50c94$47 inWon+$474254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff8…1bcfbacked Western Michigan Broncos50c80$40 inWon+$403246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Toledo Rockets51c53$27 inLost-$27.031,12446.4%521 W · 603 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Toledo Rockets50c45$23 inLost-$22.51560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…7ca5backed Toledo Rockets50c43$22 inLost-$21.53053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1670…d6a2backed Toledo Rockets50c43$22 inLost-$21.52951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Western Michigan Broncos51c42$21 inWon+$20.587648.7%37 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Western Michigan Broncos51c42$21 inWon+$20.585364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1488…0672backed Western Michigan Broncos50c39$20 inWon+$19.55253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f25…1e6ebacked Toledo Rockets50c38$19 inLost-$191952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ed…53f7backed Toledo Rockets50c35$18 inLost-$17.52245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa305…73c9backed Toledo Rockets49c34$17 inLost-$16.662236.4%8 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9431…6270backed Toledo Rockets50c20$10 inLost-$103852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3be0…e4e5backed Toledo Rockets50c20$10 inLost-$102373.9%17 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+43.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x07eb…4b4cbacked Toledo Rockets50c20$10 inLost-$102552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5c…1f57backed Toledo Rockets50c20$10 inLost-$101560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x194f…81b6backed Toledo Rockets50c20$10 inLost-$104158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.