Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Toledo Rockets (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x757dc82f59990c12a4e677c9e123bb8e40a3b2b7a0d3cf8198f142d553cee3f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Michigan Broncosof Toledo Rockets, Western Michigan Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1393…8392backed Western Michigan Broncos | 45c | 175$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Western Michigan Broncos | 46c | 172$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Western Michigan Broncos | 47c | 87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Western Michigan Broncos | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Western Michigan Broncos | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Western Michigan Broncos | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Toledo Rockets | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Toledo Rockets | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Toledo Rockets | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Toledo Rockets | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Toledo Rockets | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Toledo Rockets | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Western Michigan Broncos | 45c | 38.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Toledo Rockets | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Toledo Rockets | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Toledo Rockets | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Toledo Rockets | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Toledo Rockets | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Toledo Rockets | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Toledo Rockets | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Toledo Rockets | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Toledo Rockets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Toledo Rockets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Toledo Rockets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Toledo Rockets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-10.5)Western Michigan Broncos won
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-11.5)Western Michigan Broncos won
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo RocketsToledo Rockets won
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 161.5Over won
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 162.5Over won
- Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 163.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.