Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Valinor (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f1140ee5e78a2f93ff774e2f39571e248c5a5f3ae0eb7c60702ed42f249035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, Valinor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Valinor | 1c | 3,943$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Spirit Academy | 56c | 2,133$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.01 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Valinor | 50c | 1,706$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Valinor | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…7481backed Valinor | 43c | 944.03$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Spirit Academy | 58c | 867.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.07 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Valinor | 45c | 794.21$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.47 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Valinor | 42c | 785.6$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.75 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…8738backed Valinor | 43c | 480$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…04c0backed Spirit Academy | 57c | 480$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +224.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Spirit Academy | 50c | 437.13$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 417.53$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.46 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…0df6backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…1361backed Spirit Academy | 27c | 375.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…03bbbacked Valinor | 65c | 348.23$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 332.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.05 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Valinor | 60c | 231$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…c346backed Valinor | 74c | 223.53$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…4fd4backed Valinor | 43c | 202.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Valinor | 47c | 186.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c9…ac4abacked Spirit Academy | 29c | 183.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Spirit Academy | 29c | 172.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 170.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Spirit Academy | 26c | 163.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Spirit Academy | 67c | 148.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 144.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Valinor | 55c | 143.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Spirit Academy | 56c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…fc19backed Valinor | 75c | 138.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Valinor | 46c | 109.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked Spirit Academy | 55c | 108.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Valinor | 61c | 105$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked Spirit Academy | 50c | 103.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Spirit Academy | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…456bbacked Valinor | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…7a2cbacked Valinor | 74c | 96.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 90.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Valinor | 54c | 84.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Spirit Academy | 33c | 81.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…1ce3backed Spirit Academy | 56c | 79.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…dd13backed Valinor | 53c | 75.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Valinor | 20c | 61.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Valinor | 18c | 59.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…615fbacked Valinor | 60c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Valinor | 59c | 54.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…f7c2backed Spirit Academy | 38c | 51.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Spirit Academy | 53c | 47.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fb…4442backed Valinor | 43c | 45.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Spirit Academy | 28c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…1336backed Valinor | 73c | 41.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Spirit Academy | 62c | 38.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 38.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…41f8backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Spirit Academy | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Valinor | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Valinor | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Valinor | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…cde5backed Valinor | 72c | 34.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…6b6abacked Spirit Academy | 80c | 34.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Spirit Academy | 33c | 33.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…4b62backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 30.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Valinor | 44c | 30.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…e87abacked Valinor | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…d25abacked Valinor | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…5822backed Spirit Academy | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked Valinor | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…e779backed Valinor | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…9014backed Valinor | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Valinor (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Valinor - Game 1 WinnerValinor won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Valinor - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.