Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f76fa32e18cb9a59ca9a70ae61ed34da4dfd6976343a82dd495ab8628c2687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 42c | 342.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 43c | 281.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 27c | 239.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 185$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 182.31$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 166.32$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 136.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 135.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…1623backed Yes | 40c | 111.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 104.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 91.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 62c | 89.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 24c | 82.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 40c | 82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 62c | 68.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 42c | 63.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 57.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 26c | 56.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 54.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 52.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 50.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 42c | 50.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed Yes | 30c | 48.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 47.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 44c | 45.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 44.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 42.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…8fb7backed Yes | 33c | 41.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 37.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 37c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 32.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 36c | 31.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 66c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 36c | 29.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 63c | 28.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked Yes | 41c | 27.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 54c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 24.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…7058backed Yes | 47c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 70c | 22.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 21.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 71c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 56c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 19.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.