Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86e9ac80ad0fd8765e18df0f364b0662bd1bc17ee07936a95f575e4b74261a41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 2c | 1,785$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.51 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 48c | 483.81$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.54 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 66c | 355.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.92 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed No | 40c | 254.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 230.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 43c | 220$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 218.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 33c | 174.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked No | 8c | 161.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 23c | 158.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 146.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 135.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 134.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed No | 27c | 129.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 110.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 95.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 95.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 95.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 25c | 81.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 37c | 77.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 55c | 77.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 19c | 74.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 70c | 69.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 45c | 69.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 65.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 58c | 63.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 19c | 61.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 59.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 22c | 58.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 69c | 51.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 49c | 51.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 45.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 45.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 44.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 34c | 43.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 43.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed Yes | 53c | 41.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 38c | 32.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 38c | 30.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 35c | 29.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 25.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 24.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53f…5c8bbacked Yes | 62c | 24.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8529…1449backed Yes | 65c | 22.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…eac5backed Yes | 74c | 20.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 80c | 16.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.