Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4101782e856acaeffe39a197ba3868aa0ad9da321246e1a22fb7df238b82f4bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 7c | 1,155$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 780.59$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.64 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 435.57$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 275.29$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 271.53$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 264.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 64c | 165$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 28c | 159.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 159.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 144.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 137$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 126.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 79c | 125.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 117.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 67c | 116.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 96.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 86.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 23c | 73.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 70.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 32c | 61.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 60.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 59.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 27c | 57.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 38c | 52.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 31c | 52.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 39c | 50.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 50.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 35c | 50.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 28c | 44.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 42.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 42.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 60c | 41.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…17c6backed Yes | 37c | 40.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 34.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 34c | 34.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 33.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 39c | 28.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 28.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 27.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 24.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 73c | 23.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 66c | 17.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 76c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 40°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.