Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeba066a4b2bded3c1babc65c98349f084a0f3e2e283c50f96adca7803738698b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 1c | 1,931$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 931.02$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.74 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa391…5666backed No | 61c | 800$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 68c | 606.67$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 76c | 505.33$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.2 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 433.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 39c | 403.85$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.84 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 365.35$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 355.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 298.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 281.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 257.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 249.47$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 239.15$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 237.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 228.41$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 184.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 182.16$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 179.1$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 162.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 26c | 156.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 137$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 76c | 130.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 11c | 104.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 80c | 97.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 90.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 77c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 85.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 36c | 85.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked No | 56c | 84.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 32c | 78.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 15c | 74.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 73.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 70.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 70.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 18c | 62.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 75c | 56.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 56.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 33c | 55.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 74c | 53.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 32c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 76c | 49.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 49.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 79c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 53c | 41.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 25c | 40.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 40.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 53c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 64c | 37.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 80c | 36.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 79c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 56c | 35.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 33.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 28.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 68c | 25.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…08c5backed Yes | 74c | 22.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 59c | 20.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 19.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 55c | 19.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 17.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…32d0backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.9wins | -0.35per pick | 71cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 40°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.