Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4b3b0b630d980c5e2617327a8c7e6d8af26f751fdc4a8b6c47795758eec1110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 29c | 406.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 360.46$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 301.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 251.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 250.09$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 241.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 193.76$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 167$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 35c | 157.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 72c | 139.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 137$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 134.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 116.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 19c | 112.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 98.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 84.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 83.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 80.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 79.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 57.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 56.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 28c | 47.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…17c6backed Yes | 33c | 45.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 26c | 45.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 43.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 36c | 41.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 41.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 40.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 39.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 36c | 35.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 66c | 32.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 65c | 30.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 30.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 77c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 75c | 26.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 74c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 65c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 18.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed No | 76c | 16.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…0c42backed No | 70c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 75c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 40°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.