Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41063022f53a79753cda65affd63f964e1b035406efd312aecef2662d39bc601
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Virginia Cavaliers, Miami Hurricanes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,684 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Miami Hurricanes | 56c | 12,409$6,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,933.22 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 5,971$2,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,349.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…069fbacked Miami Hurricanes | 51c | 3,920$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac8…fc96backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 3,886$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Virginia Cavaliers | 45c | 1,859$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.65 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 1,412$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.72 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 1,035$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.61 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 697.87$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.81 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 578.75$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.13 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Miami Hurricanes | 57c | 347.87$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 287.18$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Virginia Cavaliers | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…80ebbacked Miami Hurricanes | 59c | 168.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Virginia Cavaliers | 45c | 164.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 162$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Miami Hurricanes | 54c | 128.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Hurricanes | 44c | 101.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 45c | 88.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 85.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 46c | 77.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 72.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Virginia Cavaliers | 43c | 68.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 67.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 65.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 64.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Miami Hurricanes | 57c | 59.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Virginia Cavaliers | 46c | 51.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 72c | 51.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…1b92backed Miami Hurricanes | 57c | 43.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Virginia Cavaliers | 46c | 37.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Hurricanes | 39c | 37.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 46c | 30.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Virginia Cavaliers | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +10.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 29.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Miami Hurricanes | 58c | 25.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Virginia Cavaliers | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…56f9backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 22.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…3d34backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 19.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-4.5)this page
- Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers won
- Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 134.5Over won
- Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 135.5Over won
- Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 136.5Over won
- Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 138.5Over won
- Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 143.5Over won
- Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 144.5Over won
- Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 145.5Over won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-12.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-2.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-3.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.