Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x411ca5ebe0f5b73a45d958f6eefdbe644d38294e60a3d8b457d143eda8d1352f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 60c | 615.79$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.7 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 560$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.81 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 429$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 385.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 352.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 45c | 322.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 279.91$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 231$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 206.9$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 57c | 179.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 36c | 176.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 160.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 138.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 47c | 118.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 102.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 100.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 98.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 20c | 98.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 90.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 40c | 86.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 43c | 79.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 68.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 57c | 65.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 60.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…35e5backed Yes | 29c | 60.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 51.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 48c | 50.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 47.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…4140backed No | 69c | 47.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 56c | 47.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 45.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 37.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 58c | 36.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 30.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 41c | 30.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 42c | 28.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 26.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 58c | 23.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.