Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b5bca58a8716a21e166714010533ebadd90296aa427fab464877999390bd88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 52c | 809.98$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.72 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 46c | 580.03$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.68 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 57c | 514.8$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.8 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 34c | 403$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 54c | 303.63$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 70c | 285.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 277.16$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 46c | 248.48$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 223.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 193.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 73c | 193.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 42c | 191.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 43c | 188.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 185.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 164.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 150.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 143.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 133.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 55c | 131.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 47c | 119.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 54c | 114.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 44c | 110.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 102$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 79.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 71.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 21c | 68.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 53c | 62.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 62.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 54c | 55.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 45.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 43.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 75c | 42.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 40.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 39.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 37.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 37.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 42c | 35.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 46c | 33.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 50c | 28.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 27.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 63c | 25.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 54c | 22.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 54c | 19.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 70c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.