Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4133dd9867743a2eb13f5c0aafbf2330b51a57ab39ca328a9c419d651179d59e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 79c | 406.7$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 381.09$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 64c | 325.28$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 321.39$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.97 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 307.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 20c | 277.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 31c | 246.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.72 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 200.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 31c | 168.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.9 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 166.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 72c | 163.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 35c | 134.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 42c | 122.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 48c | 122.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 71c | 120.45$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 117.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 25c | 111$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 37c | 110$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed No | 12c | 109.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 107.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 79c | 99.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 30c | 83.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 81.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 74c | 74.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 34c | 71.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 27c | 69.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 67.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…19fabacked Yes | 70c | 65.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 30c | 54.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 27c | 51.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 49.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 48.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 29c | 48.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 76c | 47.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 25c | 47.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 33c | 46.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 66c | 45.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 41.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked No | 80c | 39.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed Yes | 26c | 38.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 36.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 33c | 34.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 40c | 30.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 43c | 30.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 55c | 28.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 27.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 71c | 27.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 26.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 70c | 26.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 76c | 25.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 67c | 23.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 20.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 19.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.