Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2ea81ceb34f7266b4650c954cf936b72b5f7824505495868a34446ea97cc5ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 35c | 279.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 46c | 269.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.89 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 31c | 269.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 46c | 240.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 33c | 225.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 213.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 196.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 168.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 30c | 165.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 162.52$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 69c | 150.51$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 53c | 139.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…5afebacked Yes | 33c | 136.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 72c | 129.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 127.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 126.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 44c | 118.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 33c | 115.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 52c | 107.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 47c | 98.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 83.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 30c | 82.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 56c | 82.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 69.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 44c | 69.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 47c | 69.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa456…6d13backed Yes | 33c | 63.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 48c | 59.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 43c | 57.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 60c | 56.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 56.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 53.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 45c | 53.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 55c | 52.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 52c | 50.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…515fbacked Yes | 30c | 50.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 51c | 49.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 54c | 47.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 52c | 47.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 40c | 47.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eff…37cebacked Yes | 40c | 46.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 44.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 43.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 70c | 41.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 40.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 62c | 38.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 68c | 37.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 72c | 37.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 34c | 37.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 65c | 36.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 34.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 66c | 33.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 64c | 32.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 32c | 32.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 55c | 27.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 52c | 24.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 70c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…5d49backed No | 72c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3e…de43backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 17.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.