Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4164f44c832d6ca99ff237a3e98e557d3b868eb2ad4f0b8e16d106ddfc1c1036
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 66c | 8,886$5,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.08 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 4,583$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 74c | 3,347$2,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 28c | 3,204$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.15 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 53c | 1,125$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.19 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…1747backed No | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 27c | 891.51$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.84 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Yes | 49c | 842.5$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…291fbacked No | 51c | 698$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…286abacked No | 52c | 697.83$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 47c | 425$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.51 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 68c | 355.1$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 53c | 345$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.85 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5247…ece7backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…b127backed No | 34c | 146.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 49c | 143.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 51c | 130.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 28c | 129.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 114$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 16c | 111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 53c | 98.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed No | 13c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 41c | 97.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 53c | 84.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…60c6backed Yes | 79c | 77.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 33c | 68.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 76c | 65.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 76c | 65.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed No | 26c | 57.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 67c | 53.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 53c | 46.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 68c | 36.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 51c | 34.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…eeabbacked Yes | 71c | 33.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 72c | 26.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed No | 53c | 25.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 63c | 19.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 75c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-08-16?this page
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.