NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41650da0dba3d31c2a12658f468c27a0469d2df67c8167fcfed7dbf18b71543c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,194 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 4,867$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 53c | 4,717$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.98 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa526…2fe7backed Under | 48c | 1,897$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 1,652$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.24 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…b5f1backed Over | 52c | 809$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 56c | 753.44$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.55 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f5…078abacked Over | 52c | 653$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e3…ce50backed Over | 52c | 434.81$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 417.66$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Under | 44c | 351.8$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 56c | 279$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Over | 53c | 185.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 46c | 115.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 45c | 47.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 52c | 38.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Over | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Under | 45c | 29.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 48c | 25.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 25.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 55c | 25.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 45c | 23.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…de09backed Over | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…8aa7backed Over | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5this page
- Clippers vs. MavericksClippers won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Darius Garland: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Spread: Clippers (-6.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-7.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.