NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f8df3a4dc8733653027509f593888d007e31b2a20412ec5d693831b8970b2bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,869 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 51c | 2,340$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.4 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…f708backed Over | 49c | 2,340$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.4 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…24cabacked Under | 5c | 999.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 626$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 368.83$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.36 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 54c | 339.35$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.17 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 263.33$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 51c | 131$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Under | 53c | 89.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 79c | 31.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 61c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 55c | 18.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5this page
- Clippers vs. MavericksClippers won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Darius Garland: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Spread: Clippers (-6.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-7.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.