Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Open: Cerundolo vs. Buse
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41689f4ef19d2fe12d81458b244035633eca2ab9d1cbd14c0cd934f39cf1a3d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Buse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Cerundolo | 64c | 1,844$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.21 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Buse | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.99 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cerundolo | 79c | 1,225$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.34 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Buse | 26c | 924.87$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.45 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Buse | 43c | 622.07$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.75 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…c0cfbacked Cerundolo | 58c | 517.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cerundolo | 57c | 428.4$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.21 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Buse | 44c | 381$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cerundolo | 56c | 381$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.64 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Buse | 35c | 220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Buse | 48c | 209.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Buse | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cerundolo | 57c | 174.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Buse | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Cerundolo | 56c | 116.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Cerundolo | 56c | 103.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Buse | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Cerundolo | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Buse | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 253 | 42.7%108 W · 145 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Cerundolo | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Buse | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…b28abacked Cerundolo | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Buse | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Cerundolo | 59c | 84.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Buse | 41c | 84.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Cerundolo | 74c | 79.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Cerundolo | 76c | 37.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Cerundolo | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Cerundolo | 64c | 22.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.