Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Rebecca Sramkova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x417b5ed8b92b61cca4dd9180af09769787a8d87d9a9971445959340616c99988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Anastasia Zakharovaof Anastasia Zakharova, Rebecca Sramkova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,613 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Rebecca Sramkova | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.97 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Rebecca Sramkova | 6c | 7,399$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.44 | 6,678 | 50.7%3,387 W · 3,291 L | +265.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 7,317$4,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,219.62 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…adc3backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rebecca Sramkova | 44c | 1,457$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.32 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Rebecca Sramkova | 23c | 1,434$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.15 | 248 | 37.1%92 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rebecca Sramkova | 5c | 1,397$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 76c | 1,248$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.21 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Rebecca Sramkova | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 205 | 42.4%87 W · 118 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Anastasia Zakharova | 61c | 810.04$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Anastasia Zakharova | 78c | 790.95$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Rebecca Sramkova | 3c | 764.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 279 | 35.8%100 W · 179 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Rebecca Sramkova | 2c | 729.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rebecca Sramkova | 12c | 705.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Anastasia Zakharova | 74c | 699.57$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Rebecca Sramkova | 44c | 508.71$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.26 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Rebecca Sramkova | 24c | 489.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 448.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.33 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…4a0cbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 785 | 52.9%415 W · 370 L | +22.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rebecca Sramkova | 4c | 291$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Anastasia Zakharova | 57c | 249.65$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Anastasia Zakharova | 57c | 245.91$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…e260backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…3091backed Rebecca Sramkova | 14c | 192.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5142…ee20backed Anastasia Zakharova | 57c | 184.07$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…0628backed Anastasia Zakharova | 63c | 180.79$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 302 | 41.7%126 W · 176 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Anastasia Zakharova | 60c | 161.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 423 | 58.6%248 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Rebecca Sramkova | 32c | 154.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Rebecca Sramkova | 37c | 122$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2,781 | 53.8%1,495 W · 1,286 L | +71.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Anastasia Zakharova | 79c | 118.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rebecca Sramkova | 20c | 118.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 9,406 | 44.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L | -245.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Rebecca Sramkova | 45c | 110.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 433 | 53.6%232 W · 201 L | +32.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 106.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 348 | 48.3%168 W · 180 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Anastasia Zakharova | 57c | 105.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 262 | 54.6%143 W · 119 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…44f9backed Anastasia Zakharova | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Rebecca Sramkova | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,029 | 33.5%345 W · 684 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Rebecca Sramkova | 39c | 82.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,053 | 47.8%982 W · 1,071 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Rebecca Sramkova | 44c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 978 | 44.6%436 W · 542 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rebecca Sramkova | 24c | 73.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rebecca Sramkova | 24c | 73.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Anastasia Zakharova | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Rebecca Sramkova | 36c | 67.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Anastasia Zakharova | 72c | 67.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…6b6ebacked Rebecca Sramkova | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 7,201 | 49.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L | +114.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked Rebecca Sramkova | 42c | 59.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…f152backed Anastasia Zakharova | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 737 | 58.8%433 W · 304 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Rebecca Sramkova | 43c | 50.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Anastasia Zakharova | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Rebecca Sramkova | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d9…4627backed Rebecca Sramkova | 44c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rebecca Sramkova | 34c | 42.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Anastasia Zakharova | 75c | 41.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 6,867 | 48.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L | +61.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…6100backed Rebecca Sramkova | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 112 | 34.8%39 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…33a9backed Rebecca Sramkova | 42c | 36.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 228 | 47.4%108 W · 120 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 77c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…28e5backed Anastasia Zakharova | 72c | 30.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Anastasia Zakharova | 74c | 29.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 349 | 50.4%176 W · 173 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Rebecca Sramkova | 44c | 26.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Rebecca Sramkova | 45c | 26.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…591abacked Rebecca Sramkova | 47c | 24.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Anastasia Zakharova | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Anastasia Zakharova | 56c | 17.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Rebecca Sramkovathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Zakharova vs SramkovaZakharova won
- Zakharova vs. Sramkova: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.