Euroleague · resolved market
Spread: Valencia (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41823cd7eb4a9a48828c24a88fdaa22bafc46a6bdf33ef17ef1211b1357d87b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bilbao Basketof Valencia, Bilbao Basket
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Bilbao Basket | 52c | 3,865$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Valencia | 49c | 2,657$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.95 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Bilbao Basket | 52c | 1,924$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.22 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…9098backed Bilbao Basket | 48c | 1,131$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.15 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +91%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked Valencia | 48c | 1,127$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Valencia | 48c | 999$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0e…b995backed Valencia | 48c | 795.83$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Valencia | 49c | 319.82$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Valencia | 52c | 213.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Bilbao Basket | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca09…d50ebacked Valencia | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Valencia | 52c | 162.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Valencia | 50c | 128.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Valencia | 50c | 104.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Valencia | 48c | 101.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…da6abacked Valencia | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Bilbao Basket | 48c | 81.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…5df7backed Bilbao Basket | 48c | 80.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Bilbao Basket | 51c | 66.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Valencia | 50c | 64.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Bilbao Basket | 50c | 52.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Valencia | 49c | 44.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Valencia | 50c | 37.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Valencia | 49c | 27.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Valencia | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…c473backed Valencia | 52c | 22.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Valencia (-11.5)this page
- Valencia vs. Bilbao BasketValencia won
- Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket: O/U 176.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.