MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x418faaaa10daeed52cfe1fb98e46e2e0ca99fc4e4cce7cd33607ae0ef68b832a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof New York Mets, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x164f…deb3backed New York Mets | 39c | 1,051$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.8 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed New York Mets | 40c | 999.81$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.92 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed New York Mets | 39c | 847.61$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.57 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Athletics | 60c | 644.38$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.8 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 65c | 371.69$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 38c | 362.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 33c | 327.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed New York Mets | 39c | 322.37$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 59c | 310.62$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked New York Mets | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Athletics | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics | 61c | 158.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Athletics | 61c | 158.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Athletics | 61c | 158.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Athletics | 61c | 158.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Athletics | 61c | 158.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Athletics | 61c | 158.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Athletics | 61c | 151.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Athletics | 61c | 147.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Athletics | 60c | 144.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed New York Mets | 39c | 125.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked New York Mets | 39c | 96.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked New York Mets | 39c | 72.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Athletics | 61c | 44.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Athletics | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Athletics | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed New York Mets | 39c | 31.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked New York Mets | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked New York Mets | 39c | 28.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed New York Mets | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 41c | 24.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Athletics | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. New York MetsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 2.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.