Tennis · resolved market
Croatia Open: Matej Dodig vs Pablo Carreno Busta
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41a06e0c3abdeb6aae5609bf59ee00c595507aaf891743d7271d9c7d0f0eac65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pablo Carreno Bustaof Matej Dodig, Pablo Carreno Busta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Matej Dodig | 6c | 15,746$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.88 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 71c | 7,663$5,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.2 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Matej Dodig | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Matej Dodig | 29c | 1,966$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.87 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Matej Dodig | 29c | 1,377$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.29 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Matej Dodig | 30c | 1,333$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.89 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db8…0ed7backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 80c | 1,323$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.62 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Matej Dodig | 15c | 1,075$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.34 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Matej Dodig | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…03f1backed Matej Dodig | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 99 | 16.2%16 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Matej Dodig | 33c | 994$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.92 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 67c | 842.8$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.75 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Matej Dodig | 6c | 795.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Matej Dodig | 29c | 634$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.86 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Matej Dodig | 29c | 618.68$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.44 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 265 | 46.4%123 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Matej Dodig | 24c | 557.93$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.21 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed Matej Dodig | 17c | 545.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | -16.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Matej Dodig | 21c | 527.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf764…61e6backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 237 | 23.6%56 W · 181 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 68c | 428.29$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.03 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 72c | 409.72$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4037…143bbacked Matej Dodig | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 1,077 | 62.8%676 W · 401 L | -27.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Matej Dodig | 28c | 344$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 72c | 299.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…0454backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Matej Dodig | 30c | 266.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Matej Dodig | 30c | 255.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Matej Dodig | 30c | 240$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…5d5fbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 71c | 199.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Matej Dodig | 29c | 190$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2842…fb48backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 69c | 188.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 211 | 59.7%126 W · 85 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 67c | 183$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Matej Dodig | 28c | 173$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Matej Dodig | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Matej Dodig | 29c | 162.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Matej Dodig | 18c | 158.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Matej Dodig | 32c | 139.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 74c | 134.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Matej Dodig | 29c | 133.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Matej Dodig | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 725 | 42.6%309 W · 416 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Matej Dodig | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Matej Dodig | 24c | 103.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 76c | 85.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Matej Dodig | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Matej Dodig | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Matej Dodig | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 237 | 42.6%101 W · 136 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Matej Dodig | 30c | 50.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Matej Dodig | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Matej Dodig | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 398 | 51%203 W · 195 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3207…86d9backed Matej Dodig | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…128abacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 71c | 49.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…8fb6backed Matej Dodig | 28c | 48.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Matej Dodig | 29c | 40.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 325 | 46.2%150 W · 175 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Matej Dodig | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Matej Dodig | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 75c | 36.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 75c | 34.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 82 | 82.9%68 W · 14 L | +10.1wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3785…f577backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 69c | 26.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 68c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 72c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Pablo Carreno Busta | 70c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 71c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 72c | 14.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Pablo Carreno Busta | 79c | 13.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Croatia Open: Matej Dodig vs Pablo Carreno Bustathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Dodig vs BustaBusta won
- Set Handicap: Busta (-1.5) vs Dodig (+1.5)Busta won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.