Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41a39378133b078237676a1e16645b25182ffe7d46073c61d4a06f15e3cf513e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cirsteaof Sabalenka, Cirstea
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cirstea | 33c | 5,601$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,764.59 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Sabalenka | 67c | 5,163$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.88 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Sabalenka | 68c | 1,474$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Sabalenka | 74c | 999.98$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.99 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Cirstea | 34c | 825.82$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.04 | 428 | 41.6%178 W · 250 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Cirstea | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.23 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Sabalenka | 68c | 733.69$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 949 | 68.1%646 W · 303 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cirstea | 34c | 496.11$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.1 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cirstea | 32c | 391$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Cirstea | 37c | 383$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.29 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Sabalenka | 63c | 383$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.29 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Cirstea | 32c | 333.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.81 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Cirstea | 33c | 304.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.34 | 452 | 51.8%234 W · 218 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Sabalenka | 66c | 214.91$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Cirstea | 26c | 192.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.29 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Cirstea | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…eae0backed Sabalenka | 67c | 125.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Sabalenka | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Sabalenka | 63c | 89.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Sabalenka | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…a2d1backed Cirstea | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Sabalenka | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cirstea | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,275 | 42.7%972 W · 1,303 L | +33.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Sabalenka | 66c | 31.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Sabalenka | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Sabalenka | 65c | 21.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Sabalenka | 64c | 19.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 289 | 58.1%168 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sorana Cirstea: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana CirsteaSorana Cirstea won
- Sabalenka vs. Cirstea: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs CirsteaSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.