Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41a73d2024c90076e44d51a77f012229a088f0cd6803d63d38c0bf4b0d694833
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,199.94 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 57c | 10,423$5,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,442.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 50c | 5,488$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.35 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 4,041$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.48 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 3,885$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.64 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 3,639$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.87 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Over | 51c | 2,041$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Over | 51c | 1,422$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 46c | 1,245$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.46 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 42c | 1,214$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.83 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Over | 51c | 895$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.94 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 40c | 625.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 55c | 528.14$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.96 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 51c | 448.94$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.96 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 34c | 390$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Over | 51c | 352.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 269.67$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…1394backed Over | 51c | 188.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…780bbacked Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Over | 54c | 90.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…61e2backed Over | 51c | 74.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5048…4b29backed Over | 44c | 72.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…dd4bbacked Over | 49c | 63.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 56c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Over | 49c | 52.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f88…293bbacked Over | 51c | 45.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…639ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Over | 52c | 38.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 35.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under | 46c | 27.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f86…8249backed Over | 51c | 25.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 54c | 22.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- D.C. United SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Under won
- D.C. United SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Under won
- D.C. United SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.