Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41eca8f1d3724afd684ae65858bd5a4bdbaa6c3f4a35a831955bacee35b63962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 363.57$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 234$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 215.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 171.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 170.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 170.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 168.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 55c | 154.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 152.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 20c | 142.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 54c | 141.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 53c | 112$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 59c | 109.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 109$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 106.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 106.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 19c | 102.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 101$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 34c | 95.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 75c | 88.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 82.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 22c | 74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 77c | 73.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 73.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 66.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 56c | 66.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 44c | 64.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 63.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 63.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 62.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…7842backed Yes | 48c | 62.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 57c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 53.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 46.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 62c | 40.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 45c | 39.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 39.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 38.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…4183backed No | 44c | 33.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 59c | 33.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 66c | 30.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 29.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 26.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 51c | 23.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 67c | 22.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 22.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 55c | 18.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 70c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.