Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. Ball State Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4207fc2f28ec75133989fa6a3b9d772822bb61cf82a40a6a2a73d4e01b173d9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South Dakota State Jackrabbitsof South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Ball State Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 65c | 7,800$5,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.18 | 116 | 62.1%72 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Ball State Cardinals | 35c | 7,694$2,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,692.9 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 59c | 725.44$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.33 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ball State Cardinals | 36c | 599.69$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.53 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 72c | 424$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Ball State Cardinals | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ball State Cardinals | 20c | 296.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc8…f0bbbacked Ball State Cardinals | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Ball State Cardinals | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +19.3wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ball State Cardinals | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cd…1e0bbacked South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 70c | 248$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ball State Cardinals | 28c | 169.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Ball State Cardinals | 41c | 158.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Ball State Cardinals | 26c | 158$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Ball State Cardinals | 28c | 157$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ball State Cardinals | 19c | 97.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 70c | 84.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ball State Cardinals | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Ball State Cardinals | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Ball State Cardinals | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc16…8505backed South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 72c | 26.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 68c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 76c | 18.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…6a22backed South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.