Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x420e346cef5ac33288e1e092a19f15eb461533acb79028267d50e549109f942e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Carstensz, Mentality Monster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Carstensz | 72c | 1,357$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.02 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 1,225$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 77c | 871.83$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.93 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Mentality Monster | 21c | 501.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Mentality Monster | 34c | 414.29$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.86 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…13dabacked Mentality Monster | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Carstensz | 78c | 225.18$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked Carstensz | 69c | 215.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3783…171dbacked Mentality Monster | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc564…e89dbacked Mentality Monster | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Carstensz | 79c | 187.61$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 106 | 62.3%66 W · 40 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Carstensz | 67c | 185.41$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…0aafbacked Mentality Monster | 15c | 183.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Mentality Monster | 29c | 176.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Mentality Monster | 20c | 165.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Mentality Monster | 20c | 148.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Mentality Monster | 39c | 148$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Mentality Monster | 43c | 138.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Carstensz | 76c | 138.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Mentality Monster | 30c | 129.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Mentality Monster | 24c | 125.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Mentality Monster | 43c | 118.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Mentality Monster | 25c | 117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 108.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Carstensz | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Carstensz | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Carstensz | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Carstensz | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Mentality Monster | 32c | 98.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Carstensz | 73c | 92.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Mentality Monster | 36c | 86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Carstensz | 75c | 83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Carstensz | 65c | 76.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Carstensz | 52c | 54.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Carstensz | 76c | 51.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Carstensz | 59c | 47.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Mentality Monster | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Carstensz | 67c | 45.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Mentality Monster | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…75debacked Carstensz | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…fcdfbacked Carstensz | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Carstensz | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Carstensz | 59c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Carstensz | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Carstensz | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…ec0cbacked Carstensz | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Carstensz | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 WinnerCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.