Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x422d972a16fe3dd7031186c09ab3041af21ac776181a2cb150eea558ebf30746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons | 60c | 7,031$4,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.53 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…de2fbacked Team Falcons | 53c | 5,568$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,617.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked ex-HEROIC | 47c | 5,500$2,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed ex-HEROIC | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.99 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked ex-HEROIC | 41c | 2,265$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.43 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked ex-HEROIC | 43c | 2,235$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.23 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed ex-HEROIC | 28c | 954.92$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.52 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed ex-HEROIC | 42c | 784.36$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.63 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…bad1backed Team Falcons | 56c | 542.65$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Team Falcons | 51c | 408.16$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef70…eb8dbacked ex-HEROIC | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 335.93$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.33 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Team Falcons | 62c | 330.77$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Team Falcons | 58c | 322.12$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed ex-HEROIC | 39c | 305.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed ex-HEROIC | 39c | 261.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 190.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Team Falcons | 56c | 178.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked ex-HEROIC | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed Team Falcons | 55c | 85.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Team Falcons | 64c | 75.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked ex-HEROIC | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Team Falcons | 56c | 71.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Team Falcons | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…5878backed ex-HEROIC | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…2998backed Team Falcons | 58c | 43.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked ex-HEROIC | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed ex-HEROIC | 45c | 33.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed ex-HEROIC | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Team Falcons | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…f376backed Team Falcons | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Team Falcons | 60c | 25.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed ex-HEROIC | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Falcons | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.