TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof ex-HEROIC, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,662 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e1b…ecafbacked ex-HEROIC19c12,835$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.5296645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed ex-HEROIC25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50022848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef34…2065backed Team Falcons75c6,894$5,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef07…bb26backed Team Falcons78c6,408$5,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked ex-HEROIC27c5,828$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.971,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed ex-HEROIC25c5,268$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34243344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked ex-HEROIC19c4,183$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.741,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons75c3,981$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.561,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked ex-HEROIC21c3,285$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.041,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Falcons70c3,132$2,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.2154246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed ex-HEROIC19c2,500$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47561745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed ex-HEROIC30c2,213$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.8746535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-HEROIC22c2,015$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.182,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c66…c204backed Team Falcons70c1,794$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.231353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed ex-HEROIC31c1,461$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010949.5%54 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-HEROIC20c1,448$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.411,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons71c1,250$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.539660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ex-HEROIC26c1,200$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31210546.7%49 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed ex-HEROIC25c1,169$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9372035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons79c1,018$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.811,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked ex-HEROIC21c1,010$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.4892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b4a…8060backed ex-HEROIC10c999.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003514.3%5 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Falcons69c976.76$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30336851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Falcons72c778.1$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.126843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons79c777.14$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.268649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed ex-HEROIC20c759.98$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89bd…cc95backed Team Falcons68c750$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2403844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4317…770bbacked ex-HEROIC30c728.13$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick51cpaid-78.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Falcons77c726.6$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.6779859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed ex-HEROIC28c725$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Falcons73c700$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Team Falcons74c699.99$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1828469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Falcons75c699.62$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…844fbacked ex-HEROIC30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed ex-HEROIC25c658.73$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.961,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons76c641.2$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.8979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked ex-HEROIC19c636.37$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0569033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed ex-HEROIC27c577.71$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.619444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Falcons80c573$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6221264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ex-HEROIC24c507$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.432,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed Team Falcons73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13515465.6%101 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Falcons74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13044149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed ex-HEROIC50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25029352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Team Falcons70c499.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15045052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed ex-HEROIC16c499.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed ex-HEROIC32c499.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16080544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed ex-HEROIC29c495.87$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.81,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed ex-HEROIC19c474$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2135430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-HEROIC23c463.44$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2689938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked ex-HEROIC29c462.68$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13316328.8%47 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Falcons76c450.7$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1153139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed ex-HEROIC34c446.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15048054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc26f…ce3bbacked ex-HEROIC3c435.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145950.8%30 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ee3…9d1ebacked ex-HEROIC33c429.62$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ex-HEROIC23c429.12$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.871,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Falcons64c426.98$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9896245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked ex-HEROIC38c416.07$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5848053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons75c409.25$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.491,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons72c400.24$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2361057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Team Falcons68c399.99$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1283050%15 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked ex-HEROIC33c354.7$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7235960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Falcons66c321.86$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9332652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Falcons76c315$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.824251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked ex-HEROIC30c313.39$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7537047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked ex-HEROIC23c305.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6930041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Team Falcons75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Falcons76c285.99$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6453758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed ex-HEROIC12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021333.3%71 W · 142 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed ex-HEROIC34c249.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.843738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed ex-HEROIC14c249.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked ex-HEROIC14c245.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3435032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef70…eb8dbacked ex-HEROIC44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed ex-HEROIC21c227$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4865337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ex-HEROIC22c220.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.211,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed ex-HEROIC36c215.54$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9847548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked ex-HEROIC40c204$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8821144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Team Falcons74c204$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6668345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed ex-HEROIC22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4437655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked ex-HEROIC27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5458250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaed5…981dbacked Team Falcons77c194.96$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.965752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed ex-HEROIC27c179.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4918544.9%83 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed ex-HEROIC8c170$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.458622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8393…f7cfbacked ex-HEROIC25c158.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed ex-HEROIC37c155.89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.749341.9%39 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed ex-HEROIC20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3036044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed ex-HEROIC26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398918%16 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a35…6fe0backed Team Falcons63c150$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.54854.2%26 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Falcons57c150$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed ex-HEROIC18c133.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5157654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f07…53d1backed ex-HEROIC30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021739.2%85 W · 132 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked ex-HEROIC22c133.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.891,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cbf…c53cbacked Team Falcons79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.582458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons65c120$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed ex-HEROIC38c117.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.593036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Team Falcons51c112.84$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3954648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons79c106.16$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team Falcons74c102.15$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1754753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Team Falcons75c100.38$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0958356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked ex-HEROIC24c85.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.719431.9%30 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed ex-HEROIC28c84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5224636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.