Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x423aaa1fb4f38f4dcd267af6a2a63ec948111f5614d09548960bb161f03ad8a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfaee…c167backed Yes | 28c | 4,900$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 80c | 4,618$3,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.07 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…3ee0backed Yes | 6c | 2,373$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 2,254$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.72 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 29c | 2,222$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.38 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 71c | 1,661$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.81 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 1,457$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.8 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,290$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,026$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.51 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…19abbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 3c | 995.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Yes | 5c | 858.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 7c | 632.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 23c | 601.33$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.33 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 577.17$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 75c | 527.08$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 483.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 78c | 384.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…7013backed No | 79c | 363.81$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed No | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 72c | 335.4$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 72c | 335.4$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…8af3backed Yes | 28c | 249.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Yes | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed No | 73c | 232$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 78c | 209.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 73c | 192.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0348…3d81backed Yes | 20c | 168.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…6253backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 17c | 139.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 80c | 139.8$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 135$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81aa…c075backed No | 79c | 126.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 15c | 121$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Yes | 28c | 91.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8006…94dcbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 84.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked No | 75c | 37.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…85b5backed No | 73c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-23?this page
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?No won
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.