Asian League · resolved market
Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3a9690b4d512d76ca3d7f5557bb040ae9e43e78f4c26bd74cc066fc20474896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 80c | 8,260$6,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.48 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Yes | 17c | 5,638$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.51 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 73c | 3,266$2,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.72 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 2,271$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.22 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,088$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.72 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 21c | 1,530$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,205$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…ddd3backed Yes | 18c | 1,115$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…3ee0backed Yes | 11c | 924.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Yes | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 77c | 506.91$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.83 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 70c | 380$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 22c | 361.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 21c | 299$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…105dbacked Yes | 38c | 263.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 27c | 263.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 31c | 258.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 20c | 238.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 79c | 237.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Yes | 28c | 215.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 30c | 179.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 163.19$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 62c | 156$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 155.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf558…3c42backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…1938backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1017…c669backed Yes | 12c | 113.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 103.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 24c | 102.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 32c | 85.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0348…3d81backed Yes | 26c | 63.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 56.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 29.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed No | 80c | 24.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?this page
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-23?Yes won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.