Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4245aa3ef9f0120c810d6dadebedf18804d912128755732f1111efb67e82ba65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Fire Flux Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Fire Flux Esports | 47c | 2,819$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.28 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Team Liquid | 52c | 2,162$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.01 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Team Liquid | 55c | 794.88$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.16 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Fire Flux Esports | 68c | 510.83$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.36 | 558 | 52.2%291 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Liquid | 30c | 433.53$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.63 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Fire Flux Esports | 70c | 350$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.95 | 244 | 64.3%157 W · 87 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfb…9680backed Fire Flux Esports | 72c | 319.65$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Team Liquid | 28c | 316.56$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.92 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked Team Liquid | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Team Liquid | 29c | 169$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…2737backed Fire Flux Esports | 70c | 142.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Fire Flux Esports | 71c | 133.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e9…39a0backed Team Liquid | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…59d9backed Team Liquid | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea9…9248backed Fire Flux Esports | 71c | 55.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Team Liquid | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Fire Flux Esports | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 65.6%126 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked Fire Flux Esports | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…8da8backed Fire Flux Esports | 71c | 35.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…2d1dbacked Team Liquid | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Fire Flux Esports | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 39.8%98 W · 148 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Liquid | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 505 | 55%278 W · 227 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.