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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Team Liquid vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Fire Flux Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c3a…020bbacked Team Liquid58c20,557$11,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,634.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fire Flux Esports42c19,395$8,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,141.5930141.2%124 W · 177 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Team Liquid61c15,331$9,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,992.483265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Fire Flux Esports40c13,378$5,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,351.3926854.1%145 W · 123 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Fire Flux Esports13c12,500$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.433245.5%151 W · 181 L+52.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+38.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6e9f…0eaebacked Team Liquid59c9,700$5,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0063100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Team Liquid58c8,000$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.989553.7%51 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Team Liquid58c5,500$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,310771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Fire Flux Esports42c4,637$1,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,947.515444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Fire Flux Esports41c4,500$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8456944.9%31 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Liquid58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68032247.8%154 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Fire Flux Esports42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68027037.8%102 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Fire Flux Esports42c4,000$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.5929045.2%131 W · 159 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Fire Flux Esports19c3,699$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.465639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Team Liquid55c3,301$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.5829956.5%169 W · 130 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…6625backed Team Liquid60c3,238$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.822842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Team Liquid63c3,015$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.0720850.5%105 W · 103 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Liquid61c2,594$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.3795849.6%475 W · 483 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Fire Flux Esports41c2,517$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.518545.9%39 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Liquid58c2,500$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05017352.6%91 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Fire Flux Esports41c2,400$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98442434.7%147 W · 277 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Team Liquid61c2,277$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.4236157.6%208 W · 153 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51f…abb0backed Team Liquid59c2,121$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb770…3f81backed Fire Flux Esports17c2,090$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.892725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb978…fac0backed Fire Flux Esports10c2,062$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.43933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Fire Flux Esports43c1,851$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8007455.4%41 W · 33 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Team Liquid57c1,846$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.7818548.6%90 W · 95 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Fire Flux Esports45c1,799$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.7119339.9%77 W · 116 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Fire Flux Esports30c1,738$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52020546.3%95 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d1…4806backed Team Liquid60c1,634$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.79262%57 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Liquid56c1,609$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.9525746.7%120 W · 137 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2f…d8c2backed Fire Flux Esports42c1,541$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.232944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Fire Flux Esports41c1,200$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4929439.4%37 W · 57 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2035…dc1cbacked Fire Flux Esports13c1,188$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.094546.7%21 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed Fire Flux Esports42c1,179$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.25841.4%24 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Fire Flux Esports13c1,151$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.854456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xced1…280ebacked Fire Flux Esports42c1,067$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fire Flux Esports42c1,051$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.4635247.2%166 W · 186 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Team Liquid56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44026357%150 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Fire Flux Esports31c986.19$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.068543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Fire Flux Esports41c965.85$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.0728951.9%150 W · 139 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed Fire Flux Esports14c946.35$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.771361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8e…37d1backed Fire Flux Esports17c941.18$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Fire Flux Esports25c940$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351,43451.1%733 W · 701 L+48.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda7…af42backed Team Liquid58c862.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.075763.2%36 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d90…2512backed Fire Flux Esports17c795.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.61040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6db…25c3backed Fire Flux Esports26c778.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003740.5%15 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Team Liquid59c772$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.381752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde84…58d0backed Team Liquid67c750.69$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…202abacked Team Liquid69c690.97$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.476750.7%34 W · 33 L-8.7wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fire Flux Esports17c682.35$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.641,39647.3%661 W · 735 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Fire Flux Esports44c681.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.984734%16 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed Team Liquid58c600$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2525354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b79…4742backed Fire Flux Esports42c597.54$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed Fire Flux Esports29c546.14$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0314045%63 W · 77 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed Fire Flux Esports19c538.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005317%9 W · 44 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-54.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Fire Flux Esports28c536.19$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.944250%21 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadeb…5850backed Team Liquid75c524.62$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.832055%11 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b9…2592backed Fire Flux Esports24c519.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1265215.4%8 W · 44 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed Team Liquid58c517.4$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.48749.4%43 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad08…c58bbacked Fire Flux Esports41c513$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb961…5554backed Fire Flux Esports4c505.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204221.4%9 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Fire Flux Esports40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd07…8d16backed Fire Flux Esports41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2053435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5848…56a1backed Fire Flux Esports20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006041.7%25 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Team Liquid68c498.83$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Fire Flux Esports44c479.29$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8927050%135 W · 135 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Fire Flux Esports44c445.07$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.8319443.8%85 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Liquid69c403.26$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.5361253.9%330 W · 282 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Fire Flux Esports40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16013145.8%60 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…5408backed Team Liquid56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+39.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Fire Flux Esports45c394.86$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.6965147.5%309 W · 342 L-16.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked Fire Flux Esports36c386.46$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2319344.6%86 W · 107 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Fire Flux Esports43c369$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.672250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Fire Flux Esports36c367.11$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1825646.9%120 W · 136 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Team Liquid56c363.57$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.976665.2%43 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Fire Flux Esports42c360$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.218949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Fire Flux Esports35c333$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8383335.2%293 W · 540 L-60.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked Team Liquid59c333$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.533158.1%18 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+48.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Fire Flux Esports41c332$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-73.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Fire Flux Esports45c313.3$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b1…8e7dbacked Fire Flux Esports41c309.12$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.741442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6457…ed50backed Fire Flux Esports45c304.65$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.09580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+39.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Fire Flux Esports45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1357052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc104…e684backed Fire Flux Esports44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d3…c0d1backed Fire Flux Esports9c295.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2822956.8%130 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Fire Flux Esports41c292.32$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7827745.5%126 W · 151 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked Fire Flux Esports19c291.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.457231.9%23 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Fire Flux Esports30c254.67$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7824550.2%123 W · 122 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Team Liquid80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509282.6%76 W · 16 L+12.1wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+19.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b03…d5cdbacked Fire Flux Esports41c243.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-52.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed Fire Flux Esports41c242.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Fire Flux Esports17c241.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5711646.6%54 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Fire Flux Esports41c236.3$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Fire Flux Esports35c234.05$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4279662.3%496 W · 300 L+54.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc17e…1813backed Team Liquid58c227.75$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.751060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Fire Flux Esports29c225$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2557757.7%333 W · 244 L+35.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Fire Flux Esports41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8feb…63fcbacked Team Liquid55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed Fire Flux Esports42c190.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.