Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shang (-1.5) vs Nishikori (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4250899ebfc12ca84417c79a1fc994a8530e086c006c8f662e1f1c6e6865e541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nishikoriof Shang, Nishikori
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed Nishikori | 64c | 10,000$6,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,606 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Shang | 36c | 7,539$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.06 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Shang | 40c | 3,750$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Nishikori | 61c | 821.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.39 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Shang | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Nishikori | 60c | 530.15$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.06 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Shang | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nishikori | 70c | 234.3$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Nishikori | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shang | 32c | 220.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nishikori | 60c | 208.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Shang | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Shang | 37c | 176.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Nishikori | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Nishikori | 79c | 107.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Shang | 40c | 87.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shang | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Shang | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Shang | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Shang | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Nishikori | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Shang | 39c | 35.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Nishikori | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Shang | 36c | 32.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Nishikori | 60c | 32.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Shang | 41c | 28.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Nishikori | 59c | 28.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Nishikori | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…2607backed Nishikori | 52c | 24.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Shang | 48c | 24.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shang (-1.5) vs Nishikori (+1.5)this page
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng ShangKei Nishikori won
- Nishikori vs. Shang: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Nishikori vs. Shang: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Nishikori vs ShangShang won
- Set 2 Winner: Nishikori vs ShangNishikori won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.