Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Nishikori vs Shang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9df185170d7e1861035d183ca93b9ce132a5ee39c5cab1e6dffd30ef408090af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shangof Nishikori, Shang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shang | 56c | 2,005$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.03 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Shang | 55c | 1,734$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.4 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Nishikori | 45c | 1,223$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 302 | 51.3%155 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Nishikori | 42c | 1,111$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.46 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Nishikori | 52c | 500.11$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.06 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…878dbacked Shang | 51c | 441.27$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Shang | 54c | 336.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.3 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Shang | 45c | 276.85$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.26 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Nishikori | 44c | 264$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Nishikori | 44c | 248.55$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 447 | 51.7%231 W · 216 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…f8acbacked Nishikori | 42c | 209.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Nishikori | 57c | 163.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…6dfbbacked Nishikori | 42c | 141.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…e330backed Nishikori | 51c | 140$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 433 | 47.3%205 W · 228 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Nishikori | 45c | 134.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nishikori | 53c | 129.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Nishikori | 47c | 116.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 205 | 65.4%134 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Shang | 46c | 115.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…92b3backed Shang | 63c | 113.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nishikori | 65c | 105.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Shang | 35c | 105.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Shang | 46c | 74.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Shang | 49c | 73.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Nishikori | 42c | 72.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 252 | 40.5%102 W · 150 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Nishikori | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Nishikori | 63c | 67.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…18e7backed Shang | 61c | 56.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f90backed Shang | 58c | 47.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Nishikori | 42c | 47.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc197…c0bcbacked Nishikori | 44c | 46.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Nishikori | 43c | 46.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Shang | 57c | 44.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf126…a54cbacked Nishikori | 42c | 27.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Nishikori | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991c…227cbacked Nishikori | 46c | 26.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Nishikori vs Shangthis page
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng ShangKei Nishikori won
- Nishikori vs. Shang: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Nishikori vs. Shang: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Nishikori vs ShangNishikori won
- Set Handicap: Shang (-1.5) vs Nishikori (+1.5)Nishikori won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.