NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b49c39333977cf6222cf175c6d069d05cac8833429379fee8dcb3c44b304a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Pacers, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb52…cbcebacked Pacers | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Thunder | 47c | 1,944$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.43 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Thunder | 54c | 799.19$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Pacers | 41c | 577.68$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.68 | 252 | 36.9%93 W · 159 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Pacers | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Thunder | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Thunder | 80c | 336.64$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Thunder | 57c | 246.63$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pacers | 45c | 220.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pacers | 46c | 219.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Pacers | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…5d47backed Pacers | 49c | 203.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Thunder | 55c | 149.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pacers | 43c | 99.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d8…b906backed Thunder | 55c | 95.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Thunder | 57c | 80.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Thunder | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Thunder | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…f36abacked Thunder | 65c | 44.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pacers | 42c | 41.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…f0f9backed Thunder | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Thunder | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…16dabacked Thunder | 78c | 30.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…7b2cbacked Thunder | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Pacers | 46c | 27.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Pacers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Thunder | 80c | 22.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4565…df3cbacked Thunder | 62c | 18.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.